sales forecasting

Quota-setting is one of the most misunderstood elements of sales leadership. Too often, it’s treated as a spreadsheet exercise or a top-down directive, rather than a strategic lever that drives behavior, performance, and growth.

Whether you’re leading a team of 20 or you’re the founder managing three reps, how you define quotas has a direct impact on your revenue trajectory and your team’s motivation.

So, where do you start?

With timing. If you’re not delivering quotas to your team until February or March, you’re already behind. Salespeople need clarity by December. That gives them runway to plan, prioritize, and hit the ground running in January. Delayed quotas create confusion and stall momentum. To achieve a strong Q1, you need to equip your team early.

Quota-setting varies depending on the size of your company. Larger teams offer more flexibility. With 10 or more reps, you can spread risk, balance performance, and model averages. You’ll have top performers who consistently overdeliver, alongside newer reps who are still ramping up. The law of averages works in your favor. You can afford some variance. Smaller teams don’t have that luxury.

When you’re running a small team, maybe two or three reps or founder-led sales, every individual matters. One person missing quota can tank your number.

You can’t rely on averages. You need precision.

That means tying quotas to actual relationships, known opportunities, and real probability. It’s not about slicing up a target evenly. It’s about assigning numbers based on what’s realistically achievable in each territory or account list.

Territory design plays a big role here. Whether it’s geographic, vertical, or named accounts, quota must reflect the market potential. You can’t expect equal performance from unequal opportunity. If Rep A has 500 viable accounts and Rep B has 50, their quotas shouldn’t look the same unless you have data that says Rep B’s accounts are closer to your Ideal Client Profile. Use available market data to inform the number. Don’t assign quotas in a vacuum. 

In larger organizations, quotas often originate from the top down, typically from finance. The CEO and CFO commit a growth number to the board, investors, or in public filings to the SEC. They have no choice but to pass it down. It’s not uncommon for the sales team to receive the number without context. That’s a problem. If you’re in a leadership role, you need to pressure test that number. Can your team realistically hit it? If not, what additional resources are required?

• More headcount?
• Better enablement?
• Marketing support?

In large organizations where the quota is driven by investor expectations, the VP of Sales must establish an organization well before the new year that achieves this year’s goal, while also meeting the expectation of growth for the next year. Planning ahead, sometimes years in advance, is part of the job.